Prediction Market Data Infrastructure and Backtesting

C7/10April 13, 2026

WhatA comprehensive data platform that captures real-time orderbook data, resolution outcomes, and liquidity metrics across prediction markets, with built-in backtesting tools that account for queue position and spread dynamics.

SignalMultiple sophisticated traders in the discussion independently flag that the data situation for prediction markets is terrible — you have to scrape orderbooks yourself, backtesting is unreliable because you can't model queue priority, and there's no clean way to assess strategy viability without resolution timing data.

Why NowPrediction markets are transitioning from novelty to serious financial instruments with institutional interest, but the data infrastructure is still at the 2010-era crypto level — the same gap that companies like Kaiko and Glassnode filled for crypto markets.

MarketQuantitative prediction market traders, hedge funds exploring alt-data, and academic researchers; TAM follows prediction market growth trajectory; closest comp is Kaiko for crypto ($20M+ ARR) but nothing exists for prediction markets specifically.

MoatHistorical orderbook data is ephemeral — whoever starts capturing it first builds an irreplaceable dataset that compounds daily and cannot be recreated retroactively.

Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets View discussion ↗ · Article ↗ · 450 pts · April 13, 2026

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